# Fair value estimator (2026-10-26)

Calculated on 2026-10-26 from prices of 2026-10-23 and SEC filings through 2026-10-23.

Green: our model fair value is more than 10% above the price. Red: more than 10% below. Amber: within 10% either way.

## Companies we research by hand

- AEVA: USD 9.88 on 2026-10-22 vs average fair value 17.43 (+76.4%, green), fair value calculated 2026-10-23 · https://theclaudetrader.com/stock-analysis/AEVA#fair-value
- NBIS: USD 159.17 on 2026-10-22 vs average fair value 177.0 (+11.2%, green), fair value calculated 2026-10-23 · https://theclaudetrader.com/stock-analysis/NBIS#fair-value
- SIVE: SEK 24.12 on 2026-10-21 vs average fair value 15.31 (-36.5%, red), fair value calculated 2026-10-23 · https://theclaudetrader.com/stock-analysis/SIVE#fair-value
- XFAB: EUR 5.13 on 2026-10-22 vs average fair value 8.56 (+66.9%, green), fair value calculated 2026-10-23 · https://theclaudetrader.com/stock-analysis/XFAB#fair-value

## Radar

The 50 screener stocks with the highest average of their eight philosophy scores, counting only stocks scored under at least six of the eight.

| # | Ticker | Avg score | Price | Fair value (low-high) | Gap | Verdict | Methods | Calculated | Filings to |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | [CF](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/CF) | 70.8 | 120.68 | 250.05 (87.55-307.71) | +107.2% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-06 |
| 2 | [CTSH](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/CTSH) | 69.8 | 70.54 | 85.81 (57.39-137.84) | +21.7% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-29 |
| 3 | [AOS](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/AOS) | 65.4 | 61.65 | 75.21 (34.26-134.75) | +22.0% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-30 |
| 4 | [PYPL](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/PYPL) | 65.0 | 57.02 | 147.49 (53.11-163.54) | +158.7% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-28 |
| 5 | [SNA](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/SNA) | 63.1 | 357.02 | 386.63 (224.88-593.33) | +8.3% | amber | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-22 |
| 6 | [RMD](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/RMD) | 63.0 | 252.86 | 256.19 (103.51-365.05) | +1.3% | amber | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-13 |
| 7 | [INTU](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/INTU) | 62.7 | 343.39 | 497.56 (162.23-583.94) | +44.9% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-09-09 |
| 8 | [NUE](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/NUE) | 62.3 | 258.11 | 194.77 (128.41-263.2) | -24.5% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-12 |
| 9 | [MU](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/MU) | 61.9 | 877.55 | 452.27 (430.16-2601.55) | -48.5% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-09 |
| 10 | [JKHY](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/JKHY) | 61.6 | 162.55 | 179.93 (67.8-210.99) | +10.7% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-28 |
| 11 | [ALLE](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/ALLE) | 61.5 | 178.98 | 154.97 (64.85-224.9) | -13.4% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-22 |
| 12 | [CBOE](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/CBOE) | 61.2 | 340.42 | 163.77 (112.38-248.83) | -51.9% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-31 |
| 13 | [PNR](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/PNR) | 61.0 | 55.3 | 82.77 (45.75-136.34) | +49.7% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-28 |
| 14 | [OKE](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/OKE) | 60.8 | 95.83 | 95.76 (66.61-124.9) | -0.1% | amber | 2 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-06-30 |
| 15 | [SCHW](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/SCHW) | 60.2 | 90.58 | 129.27 (55.08-137.58) | +42.7% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-07 |
| 16 | [ACN](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/ACN) | 59.8 | 249.37 | 333.04 (120.01-409.9) | +33.6% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-16 |
| 17 | [UHS](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/UHS) | 59.7 | 186.89 | 311.93 (257.42-534.85) | +66.9% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-07 |
| 18 | [TSCO](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/TSCO) | 59.4 | 33.42 | 26.76 (15.3-56.99) | -19.9% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-06 |
| 19 | [BR](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/BR) | 59.4 | 183.28 | 218.93 (73.36-290.19) | +19.4% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-04 |
| 20 | [FAST](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/FAST) | 59.3 | 51.91 | 20.06 (9.42-21.39) | -61.4% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-19 |
| 21 | [VLO](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/VLO) | 59.0 | 419.28 | 207.0 (121.61-344.75) | -50.6% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-30 |
| 22 | [BBY](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/BBY) | 58.9 | 99.87 | 62.7 (41.49-136.97) | -37.2% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-09-04 |
| 23 | [AME](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/AME) | 58.9 | 240.03 | 98.86 (84.1-224.0) | -58.8% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-04 |
| 24 | [TT](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/TT) | 58.8 | 444.9 | 279.46 (106.98-454.3) | -37.2% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-30 |
| 25 | [CTAS](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/CTAS) | 58.6 | 224.1 | 104.65 (38.05-133.44) | -53.3% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-07 |
| 26 | [STLD](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/STLD) | 58.5 | 241.53 | 131.81 (109.12-279.65) | -45.4% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-23 |
| 27 | [FOX](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/FOX) | 58.4 | 59.46 | 48.93 (30.72-89.99) | -17.7% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-06 |
| 28 | [RSG](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/RSG) | 58.2 | 240.45 | 117.41 (77.82-157.01) | -51.2% | red | 2 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-06-30 |
| 29 | [GWW](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/GWW) | 58.2 | 1349.9 | 711.82 (264.31-1057.68) | -47.3% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-04 |
| 30 | [GD](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/GD) | 58.2 | 349.36 | 270.58 (185.65-483.23) | -22.6% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-29 |
| 31 | [NDSN](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/NDSN) | 58.0 | 318.84 | 198.42 (106.01-283.52) | -37.8% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-20 |
| 32 | [PH](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/PH) | 57.9 | 880.57 | 560.82 (279.84-595.61) | -36.3% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-21 |
| 33 | [NTAP](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/NTAP) | 57.8 | 215.48 | 120.86 (32.98-214.71) | -43.9% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-09-02 |
| 34 | [ROST](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/ROST) | 57.6 | 229.3 | 140.34 (56.03-179.64) | -38.8% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-09-01 |
| 35 | [FISV](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/FISV) | 57.6 | 49.86 | 170.89 (84.95-191.65) | +242.7% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-07 |
| 36 | [QCOM](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/QCOM) | 57.2 | 175.91 | 175.35 (54.49-258.11) | -0.3% | amber | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-29 |
| 37 | [NVDA](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/NVDA) | 56.9 | 210.96 | 61.35 (32.37-171.5) | -70.9% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-26 |
| 38 | [PHM](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/PHM) | 56.8 | 121.19 | 141.74 (133.41-228.22) | +17.0% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-22 |
| 39 | [GOOGL](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/GOOGL) | 56.7 | 320.21 | 141.18 (112.86-326.77) | -55.9% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-23 |
| 40 | [RL](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/RL) | 56.7 | 377.4 | 408.31 (124.62-410.63) | +8.2% | amber | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-06 |
| 41 | [NEM](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/NEM) | 56.4 | 108.87 | 79.84 (69.83-173.66) | -26.7% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-22 |
| 42 | [REGN](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/REGN) | 56.3 | 805.02 | 904.21 (536.16-1156.31) | +12.3% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-30 |
| 43 | [IEX](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/IEX) | 56.2 | 229.05 | 179.66 (88.55-213.55) | -21.6% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-29 |
| 44 | [CMCSA](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/CMCSA) | 56.2 | 22.69 | 59.29 (55.37-84.61) | +161.3% | green | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-22 |
| 45 | [MSFT](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/MSFT) | 55.9 | 524.51 | 229.44 (155.12-542.6) | -56.3% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-29 |
| 46 | [MA](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/MA) | 55.5 | 623.6 | 393.91 (48.79-489.35) | -36.8% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-30 |
| 47 | [HUBB](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/HUBB) | 55.4 | 448.1 | 357.57 (166.0-578.9) | -20.2% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-29 |
| 48 | [APTV](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/APTV) | 55.3 | 42.69 | 26.67 (19.44-153.6) | -37.5% | red | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-08-04 |
| 49 | [FSLR](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/FSLR) | 55.3 | 171.99 | 175.22 (7.05-497.35) | +1.9% | amber | 3 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-07-30 |
| 50 | [ED](https://theclaudetrader.com/s/ED) | 55.1 | 115.74 | 111.84 (93.72-129.97) | -3.4% | amber | 2 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-03-31 |

## Method

- **Owner-earnings DCF**: Average free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure) over the last three fiscal years, grown for five years at the lower of the five-year revenue growth rate and 10% (floored at -5%), fading linearly to 2.5% over years six to ten, plus a terminal value at 2.5% growth, all discounted at 9%. Operating cash flow is after interest, so this is equity value; no further net-debt adjustment. Not used for banks, insurers or utilities.
- **Earnings power**: Latest diluted EPS, split-adjusted exactly as the screener scores use it, times the median price/earnings ratio of profitable peers in the same two-digit SIC industry within the 500 (whole-grid median when fewer than three peers), capped between 8 and 35.
- **Graham number**: Square root of 22.5 x EPS x book value per share, used only when both are positive.

Limitations: the 9% discount rate and 10% growth cap are fixed for every company, so fast growers look expensive and cyclical companies at peak earnings look cheap. The Graham number penalises asset-light, high-return businesses. Capital expenditure is read from PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, then PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets, other property-and-equipment and capital-improvement tags, and intangible or software purchases only when none of those exists; the tag used is named in each stock's JSON. A stock with losses and negative free cash flow gets no value. This is a model estimate, not a recommendation.

Third-party fair values (Morningstar, broker targets, Refinitiv/LSEG) are not copied here: they are licensed products. Each stock page links to them. Only the companies we research by hand on the Companies tab show third-party values, with sources and dates, in their own price vs fair value chart.