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"cite_as": "The Claude Trader snapshot 2026-10-26, https://theclaudetrader.com/s/PYPL; data from SEC EDGAR XBRL and market prices (Alpaca Market Data, Yahoo Finance) to 2026-10-23.", "disclaimer": "Scores are deterministic rule outputs from public filings. fair_value_model is a labelled model estimate from the same filings (method at /fair-value), not an opinion or recommendation.", "fair_value_model": { "fair_value": 147.49, "fv_low": 53.11, "fv_high": 163.54, "fv_gap_pct": 158.7, "fv_verdict": "green", "fv_methods": 3, "fv_as_of": "2026-10-23", "fv_calculated_on": "2026-10-26", "fv_inputs_through": "2026-07-28", "fv_skipped": null, "unit": "per traded unit (share or ADS), same currency as the price", "methods": { "dcf": { "value": 147.49043111054124, "growth_used": 0.09107015446297595, "fcf_avg": 5517000000.0, "inputs": { "fcf": { "value": 5517000000.0, "years": [ 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "by_year": [ 4220000000.0, 6767000000.0, 5564000000.0 ], "cfo": [ { "value": 4843000000.0, "tag": "SEC XBRL NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities", "period_end": "2023-12-31", "accession": "0001633917-26-000024", "filed": null, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/" }, { "value": 7450000000.0, "tag": "SEC XBRL NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities", "period_end": "2024-12-31", "accession": "0001633917-26-000024", "filed": null, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/" }, { "value": 6416000000.0, "tag": "SEC XBRL NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "accession": "0001633917-26-000024", "filed": null, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/" } ], "capex": [ { "value": 623000000.0, "tag": "SEC XBRL PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment", "period_end": "2023-12-31", "accession": "0001633917-26-000024", "filed": null, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/" }, { "value": 683000000.0, "tag": "SEC XBRL PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment", "period_end": "2024-12-31", "accession": "0001633917-26-000024", "filed": null, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/" }, { "value": 852000000.0, "tag": "SEC XBRL PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "accession": "0001633917-26-000024", "filed": null, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/" } ] }, "revenue_cagr_5y": { "value": 0.09107015446297595, "from": { "value": 21454000000.0, "tag": "SEC XBRL Revenues", "period_end": "2020-12-31", "accession": "0001633917-23-000033", "filed": null, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391723000033/" }, "to": { "value": 33172000000.0, "tag": "SEC XBRL Revenues", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "accession": "0001633917-26-000024", "filed": null, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/" } }, "shares": { "value": 855460874.0, "tag": "SEC cover page 10-Q 0001633917-26-000082 (855,460,874 shares (single class on cover)); filing document https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000082/pypl-20260630.htm", "period_end": "2026-07-22", "accession": "0001633917-26-000082", "filed": "2026-07-28", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000082/R1.htm" } } }, "earnings": { "value": 163.53561728395061, "pe_used": 30.228395061728392, "pe_raw": 30.228395061728392, "pe_basis": "SIC 73 peer median excluding itself (47 peers)", "inputs": { "eps": { "fy": 2025, "value": 5.41, "tag": "SEC XBRL EarningsPerShareDiluted", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "accession": "0001633917-26-000024", "filed": null, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/", "value_reported": 5.41, "split_factor": 1.0 } } }, "graham": { "value": 53.10576155180359, "inputs": { "eps": { "fy": 2025, "value": 5.41, "tag": "SEC XBRL EarningsPerShareDiluted", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "accession": "0001633917-26-000024", "filed": null, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/", "value_reported": 5.41, "split_factor": 1.0 }, "bvps": { "value": 23.168797781860917, "equity": { "value": 19820000000.0, "tag": "SEC XBRL StockholdersEquity", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "accession": "0001633917-26-000082", "filed": null, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000082/" }, "shares": 855460874.0 } } } }, "method_note": "Median of up to three methods from SEC filings: owner-earnings DCF (3-yr avg FCF, 10-yr two-stage, growth = min(5-yr revenue CAGR, 10%) fading to 2.5%, 9% discount), trailing EPS x SIC-peer median P/E (8-35), Graham number. Model estimate, not advice.", "discount_rate": 0.09, "terminal_growth": 0.025, "verdict_rule": "green: fair value more than 10% above price; red: more than 10% below; amber: within 10%", "page": "https://theclaudetrader.com/fair-value" } }