# Aeva Technologies: real FMCW programs, engineering-heavy revenue, and a Sivers link nobody has confirmed

Research date: **23 October 2026**. Company: **Aeva Technologies, Inc.** Listing: **Nasdaq, AEVA**. ISIN: **US00835Q2021** (CUSIP 00835Q202 since the 1-for-5 reverse split of 18 March 2024). Reporting currency: **USD** (US GAAP). Latest financial period reviewed: **quarter ended 30 June 2026** (10-Q, August 2026). Material announcements reviewed through **23 October 2026**. Capture window 22 October 19:00 to 23 October 09:05 Europe/Luxembourg.

Tags used throughout: **confirmed** = company filing, release or primary source; **est.** = our arithmetic from confirmed inputs; **speculated** = sell-side, vendor report or social post. Every figure carries the source's own date; broker rows carry a capture timestamp as well.

## Idea origination: why we are researching Serenity's AEVA thesis

**This idea came onto our research agenda through Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)**, the same account whose Sivers and X-FAB theses we examined. Aeva first appears in his posts in **February 2026** and became one of his most-mentioned names again on **20 October 2026**, the day Sivers Semiconductors announced LiDAR production orders worth USD 53 to 138M over the program lifecycle (CW DFB lasers and optical amplifiers, shipments from Q4 2026) for a customer it did not name. Serenity's reading is that the customer is Aeva and that FMCW LiDAR for trucks, cars and physical-AI machines is the next volume market for those lasers. Mention counts and dates come from independent archives ([Serenity Stock Tracker](https://serenitystock.com/), [Serenity Tracker universe](https://serenitytrades.com/universe)); x.com returns 402 to fetch tools, so post text is secondary. Serenity gets credit for the idea; filings set the baseline; this memo supplies the evidence checks. We do not assert an audited performance record or his current position.

## Investment memo: our current view

**Program watchlist; the price already sits on our base case.** Aeva has real customers: Daimler Truck and Torc for series-production autonomous trucks, a top-10 European passenger-car maker with start of production in 2028, Bendix, SICK and Nikon, with Jabil, Fabrinet and LG Innotek building the hardware. What it does not yet have is product revenue at scale. In the first half of 2026, **60% of revenue was engineering services** (USD 7.4M of 12.4M), and product revenue fell **39%** year on year in Q2 to USD 2.5M. The company burned USD 57M of operating cash in the half and still loses about USD 35M a quarter at the operating line.

The Sivers link that brought the stock back into focus is **speculated**. No Aeva filing, release or proxy mentions Sivers, Sivers names no customer, and Aeva integrates its optics on its own silicon-photonics module assembled by Fabrinet. Our money ladder also shows a scale mismatch: a full Daimler-scale truck program would bring a laser supplier only USD 1.5 to 6M a year, well short of a USD 53 to 138M order unless volumes or content per sensor are much larger than one truck program.

Governance needs watching. Founders and the departing CFO sold about **USD 20M** of stock between June and September 2026 under 10b5-1 plans adopted three months before the USD 22.25 follow-on offering; there were no insider buys in 38 Form 4 filings since November 2025. The CFO left on 5 September 2026, a month after the raise. A short report (Fugazi Research, 21 August 2026) argued the valuation rests on adjacency; we could not retrieve a primary copy.

At **USD 9.88** (22 October 2026 close) the enterprise value is about **USD 611M**, or 19× 2026 consensus sales. Our scenario values today are **USD 1.7 bust, USD 9.2 base, USD 28.3 boom** (15% discount rate, four years), so the market prices roughly the base case. External anchors sit above the price: Morningstar quantitative 3 stars with a fair value of **USD 14.10** and "consider looking elsewhere"; LSEG consensus **Buy** on 5 analysts with a mean target of **USD 29**, which equals our boom case. The balance sheet is adequate for about two years at the current burn, with USD 177.9M of cash and securities, USD 100M of convertible notes and an undrawn USD 125M Sylebra facility that expires on 8 November 2026.

**The next hard test is the Q3 2026 report on 4 November 2026**: revenue against the USD 17.6 to 23.6M the second half needs to hit the USD 30 to 36M full-year range (given in February, not repeated in August), the product versus services mix, a Daimler series-production date, the permanent CFO, and the Sylebra facility decision.

## Thesis underwriting: from source idea to investable conclusion

| Underwriting question | The bullish proposition | What needs to be established | Our current assessment |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **Technology** | FMCW wins over time-of-flight LiDAR | Volume wins outside niche uses | Aeva is the only merchant FMCW supplier with automotive awards; the volume market is still time-of-flight, and Chinese suppliers hold 93% of passenger-car LiDAR |
| **Commercial conversion** | Daimler, a European OEM and industrial programs turn into product revenue | SOP dates, unit volumes, product revenue trend | European OEM SOP 2028; Daimler SOP undated; product revenue fell 39% in Q2 2026 |
| **Sivers link** | Aeva is the customer behind Sivers' LiDAR order | A named supplier in either company's documents | Speculated; scale of one truck program is far below the order size |
| **Physical AI and optics** | Industrial sensors and a hyperscaler optical-source program add a second leg | Committed volumes, dates | JDA confirmed, first deployment H2 2027; no revenue yet |
| **Funding** | Enough cash to reach production | Runway, dilution path | About two years at the H1 burn; June raise at 22.25; evergreen plan adds up to 4.9% a year |
| **Governance** | Founders aligned with holders | Insider behaviour, CFO stability | About USD 20M of insider sales, no buys, CFO exit a month after the raise |
| **Risk/reward** | Bust USD 1.7 vs boom USD 28.3 | Dated catalysts | Q3 report 4 November; Sylebra facility expiry 8 November; Daimler SOP |

## Listing and timestamps

| Field | Value | Tag | Source date · captured |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Company | Aeva Technologies, Inc. (Mountain View, CA) | confirmed | 10-K 2025 · 22 Oct 19:04 |
| Listing | Nasdaq Global Select, AEVA, USD; CIK 1789029; CUSIP 00835Q202 (since the 1-for-5 reverse split of 18 Mar 2024), ISIN US00835Q2021 | confirmed (CUSIP: company release 18 Mar 2024; ISIN derived) | EDGAR submissions · 22 Oct 19:03; 23 Oct |
| Origin | SPAC merger with InterPrivate Acquisition Corp, March 2021; 1-for-5 reverse split March 2024 | confirmed | 10-K 2025 · 22 Oct 19:04 |
| Latest period reviewed | Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026 (10-Q filed Aug 2026) | confirmed | 10-Q Q2 2026 · 22 Oct 19:04 |
| Shares outstanding | 69,705,758 (30 Jul 2026) | confirmed | 10-Q Q2 2026 cover · 22 Oct 19:22 |
| Price | USD 9.88, close 22 Oct 2026 16:00 EDT (after hours 9.80) | confirmed (market data) | StockAnalysis · 23 Oct 08:52 |
| 52-week range | USD 8.83 to 31.30 | confirmed (market data) | StockAnalysis · 23 Oct 08:52 |
| Next report | Q3 2026 results 4 Nov 2026 after the close | confirmed | Business Wire notice 14 Oct 2026 · 22 Oct 19:18 |
| Idea source | Serenity (@aleabitoreddit): first mention Feb 2026, active again 20 Oct 2026 after the Sivers LiDAR order | speculated (social) | serenitystock.com, serenitytrades.com/universe · 22 Oct |

## What the business actually sells

Aeva makes frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW) LiDAR. Each point carries distance plus instant radial velocity ("4D"). The core is Aeva's own silicon-photonics chip, the "LiDAR-on-chip", which combines the optical transmit and receive paths. Assembly is outsourced. (confirmed, 10-K 2025 · 22 Oct 19:04)

| Product or line | What it is | Status | Tag · source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **Atlas** | Automotive-grade long-range 4D LiDAR | Daimler Truck program; produced on an automated Jabil line from Q2 2026 | confirmed · Q2 release 5 Aug 2026 |
| **Atlas Ultra** | Next-gen slimmer automotive sensor | Top-10 European passenger OEM program, SOP 2028; LG Innotek as manufacturing partner | confirmed (program) · Q2 release; SOP from leadership fork |
| **Eve 1 / Eve precision** | Industrial 4D sensors | SICK launched its first Eve-powered sensor (2026); Nikon metrology | confirmed · Q2 release |
| **Perception software** | 4D perception stack | Bundled with Bendix, NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion | confirmed · Q2 release |
| **Optical connectivity (new)** | High-power optical source for near-packaged optics (NPO) in AI data centres | Joint development agreement with an unnamed optical-engine maker for a hyperscaler; first deployment H2 2027, ramp 2028 | confirmed (JDA) · Q2 release 5 Aug 2026 |

**Customers and partners named in filings or releases:** Daimler Truck with Torc (series-production autonomous trucks, selected Jan 2024), a top-10 European passenger OEM, Bendix (Class 8 ADAS, Aug 2026), SICK, Nikon, NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion, Airbus and defence work, LG Innotek (investor and manufacturer), Jabil and Fabrinet (manufacturing). Three customers were 64% of 2025 revenue. (confirmed, 10-K 2025 and Q2 release · 22 Oct 19:20)

**Sivers link.** Sivers' 11 March and 20 October 2026 releases name only a "strategic LiDAR customer". No Aeva filing names a laser supplier, and Aeva integrates its optics on its own silicon-photonics module assembled by Fabrinet. The Sivers-to-Aeva link is **speculated** (Serenity; RevoAIution Substack 12 Aug 2026 · 22 Oct 19:20). A CW DFB laser plus optical amplifier is a plausible external light source for an FMCW chip, but other FMCW makers (Aurora in-house, SiLC, Scantinel) also exist.

## Where the laser sits: one truck program and the money that reaches Aeva

One reference program: **Daimler Truck autonomous Class 8 fleet, 50,000 trucks a year at maturity.** This is an illustrative volume, not company guidance; Daimler has given no SOP date or volume (est.).

| Layer | What it is | Vendor | Cost per unit | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Fleet | Autonomous long-haul fleet | Carrier operators via Daimler Truck and Torc | — | confirmed (program); volume est. |
| Truck | Freightliner Cascadia with L4 autonomy kit | Daimler Truck, Torc | USD 250k to 300k per truck incl. ~USD 100k autonomy hardware | est. |
| Sensor | Long-range 4D FMCW LiDAR, ~3 per truck | Aeva Atlas, built by Jabil | USD 500 to 1,000 per sensor (ASP never disclosed; Luminar Iris was ~USD 1,000) | est. |
| Module | Silicon-photonics LiDAR-on-chip plus optics | Aeva design, Fabrinet assembly | USD 150 to 300 per sensor | est. |
| Light source | CW DFB laser plus optical amplifier | unconfirmed; Sivers is the speculated supplier | USD 10 to 40 per sensor | speculated / est. |

**Money ladder for that program, per year at maturity (all est.):**

1. Trucks: 50,000 × USD 275k ≈ **USD 13.8B** fleet spend.
2. Autonomy hardware: 50,000 × ~USD 100k ≈ **USD 5B**.
3. LiDAR: 150,000 sensors × USD 750 ≈ **USD 112M** to Aeva.
4. Light source: 150,000 × USD 10 to 40 ≈ **USD 1.5 to 6M** to the laser supplier.

**Closing comparison.** One Daimler-scale program fully won ≈ USD 112M a year ≈ **6 years of 2025 sales** (USD 18.1M) per year of production. The same program gives a laser supplier only USD 1.5 to 6M a year, so Sivers' USD 53 to 138M lifecycle order implies far more sensors or more content per unit than one truck program. That is another reason not to assume the Sivers customer is Aeva alone. (est.)

## The financial starting point

Source: Q2 2026 release (8-K ex-99.1, 5 Aug 2026) and 10-Q Q2 2026; Q1 2026 derived as H1 minus Q2. Captured 23 Oct 08:50.

| Measure | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | H1 2026 | H1 2025 | Tag |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Revenue | 6.26 | 6.14 | 5.51 | 12.40 | 8.88 | confirmed (Q1 est. by subtraction) |
| Product revenue | 2.43 | 2.55 | 4.20 | 4.97 | 6.68 | confirmed |
| Professional services (NRE) | 3.84 | 3.59 | 1.31 | 7.43 | 2.20 | confirmed |
| Gross profit | 1.94 | 2.19 | −2.72 | 4.13 | −2.41 | confirmed |
| Operating expenses | 37.08 | 36.75 | 32.20 | 73.83 | 62.93 | confirmed |
| Loss from operations | −35.14 | −34.56 | −34.92 | −69.70 | −65.34 | confirmed |
| Warrant fair-value charge | ~−0.0 | −44.70 | −88.48 | — | — | confirmed (Q2) |
| Net loss | −34.98 | −79.62 | −192.74 | −114.60 | −227.61 | confirmed |
| Non-GAAP operating loss | ~−25.8 | −26.0 | −25.1 | −51.8 | — | confirmed |
| Operating cash outflow | — | — | — | −57.0 | — | confirmed (10-Q) |

**Balance sheet 30 Jun 2026 (confirmed, 10-Q):** cash, equivalents and marketable securities USD 177.9M (marketable securities 134.7M); convertible senior notes USD 100M (Apollo, 4.375%, due 2032, conversion price USD 15.86); warrant liabilities USD 74.0M; total liabilities USD 200.3M. Undrawn Sylebra standby preferred facility USD 125M, expiring 8 Nov 2026. 2026 revenue guidance USD 30 to 36M, of which 12.4M delivered in H1.

## Where Aeva stands today: inputs reused in the sections below

| Item | Value | Tag | Source date | cap. |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Revenue 2025 | USD 18.1M (2024: 9.1M) | confirmed | Q4 2025 release 26 Feb 2026 | 19:21 |
| Revenue guidance 2026 | USD 30 to 36M (+70 to 100%), given 26 Feb 2026; not repeated in the Q2 release of 5 Aug 2026 | confirmed | 26 Feb and 5 Aug 2026 releases | 19:21 |
| H1 2026 revenue | USD 12.4M (product 5.0M, services/NRE 7.4M) | confirmed | 10-Q, 30 Jun 2026 | 19:21 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | USD 6.1M; product 2.5M (from 4.2M), services 3.6M | confirmed | 5 Aug 2026 release | 19:18 |
| Non-GAAP operating loss Q2 2026 | USD 26.0M | confirmed | 5 Aug 2026 | 19:18 |
| Cash and marketable securities 30 Jun 2026 | USD 177.9M; liquidity 302.9M incl. 125M facility | confirmed | 10-Q | 19:21 |
| June 2026 raise | 5.17M shares, USD 115.0M gross (≈ USD 22.25/share, est.) | confirmed / est. | 10-Q | 19:21 |
| Shares outstanding | 69,705,758 (30 Jul 2026) | confirmed | 10-Q cover | 19:21 |
| Price | USD 9.85 (21 Oct 2026 close per StockAnalysis; 52-week 8.83 to 31.30) | confirmed (vendor) | 21 Oct 2026 | 19:19 |
| Market cap | ≈ USD 687M (69.7M × 9.85) | est. | | 19:19 |
| Enterprise value | ≈ USD 611M (USD 689M cap at 9.88 less net cash USD 77.9M = 177.9M cash − 100M Apollo converts); corrected 2026-10-23 from USD 510M, which ignored the converts | est. | 10-Q Q2 2026 | 23 Oct |

## Competitors and market share (23 October 2026)

### Automotive and industrial LiDAR sensor makers

| Company | Role | 2025 revenue | 2025 units | Blended ASP (est.) | Technology | Automotive wins | Sells the same thing as Aeva? | Source (date, cap.) |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Hesai (HSAI) | merchant, China | USD 432.9M (RMB 3,027.6M) confirmed | 1,620,406 (ADAS 1,381,133; robotics 239,273) confirmed | ≈ USD 267 (est., all revenue ÷ units; ATX ≈ USD 200) | ToF (905 nm, mostly) | BYD 10+ models; 73% of robotaxi LiDAR (2023); 2026 guide 3 to 3.5M units | Yes (sensors), No (not FMCW) | Hesai 6-K FY2025; LidarNews 13 Oct 2026 (19:16) |
| RoboSense (2498.HK) | merchant, China | RMB 1,941M ≈ USD 270M confirmed | 912,000 (robotics 303,000) confirmed | ≈ USD 296 (est.) | ToF (MEMS and chip-based) | Passenger-car leader, 26% share 2024 (Yole) | Yes / not FMCW | CnEVPost 25 Mar 2026 (19:17) |
| Innoviz (INVZ) | merchant, Israel | USD 55.1M confirmed; 2026 guide 67 to 73M | not disclosed | n/a | ToF (905 nm) | BMW; VW/CARIAD direct supplier | Yes / not FMCW | Innoviz FY2025 release (19:17) |
| Ouster (OUST) | merchant, US | USD 169M (product 147M, incl. ≈ 23M one-off royalties) confirmed | >25,000 (Q4 8,100) confirmed | ≈ USD 5,900 (est., product ÷ units) | ToF digital (industrial, robotics, smart infra) | none automotive series | Partly (industrial, infrastructure) | Ouster FY2025 release 2 Mar 2026 (19:22) |
| Luminar (LAZR) | gone | Chapter 11 Dec 2025; LiDAR assets to MicroVision 3 Feb 2026, LSI unit to Quantum Computing Inc USD 110M; equity cancelled 6 Apr 2026 | | | ToF 1550 nm | Volvo EX90 contract ended Nov 2025 | No longer | SEC 8-K, TipRanks (19:22) |
| Valeo | Tier-1, France | not disclosed (SCALA 3 inside Valeo) | n/a | n/a | ToF (mechanical/MEMS) | Audi A8 2017, Honda L3 2021, Mercedes L3 2022 | Yes / not FMCW | LidarNews (19:16) |
| Seyond (ex-Innovusion) | merchant, China/US | not disclosed | 4th globally 2024 (Yole) | n/a | ToF 1550 nm | NIO | Yes / not FMCW | LidarNews (19:16) |
| Huawei | captive/merchant, China | not disclosed | top-4 2024 (Yole) | n/a | ToF | Aito, Chinese OEMs | Yes / not FMCW | Yole press release (19:17) |
| Mobileye | was in-house FMCW | n/a | n/a | n/a | FMCW 1320 nm, **abandoned** (Forbes 5 Jan 2026) | | No (exited) | Forbes (19:23) |
| Aurora (AUR) | in-house FMCW (Blackmore) | n/a, captive | n/a | n/a | FMCW | own trucks only | No (captive) | Forbes (19:23) |
| Waymo | in-house ToF | n/a, captive | n/a | n/a | ToF | own robotaxis | No | general knowledge, speculated |
| Scantinel Photonics | private, Germany | not disclosed | pre-series | n/a | FMCW on-chip | none public | Yes (FMCW), pre-revenue | scantinel.com (19:23) |
| SiLC Technologies | private, US | not disclosed | small | n/a | FMCW on-chip (Eyeonic, with indie SoC) | none automotive public; robotics | Yes (FMCW), small | optics.org CES 2024 (19:23) |
| **Aeva (AEVA)** | merchant, US | **USD 18.1M** | not disclosed (est. low thousands) | n/a | **FMCW 1550 nm, lidar-on-chip** | Daimler Truck exclusive long-range (C-samples 2026); top European passenger OEM exclusive L3 global ex-China, SOP 2028; top-5 OEM joint development; Bendix Class 8 ADAS; Nvidia DRIVE Hyperion reference; SICK, Forterra, Nikon industrial/defence | | 26 Feb and 5 Aug 2026 releases (19:21) |

Reading: the volume market is Chinese ToF at USD 200 to 300 a unit. Aeva's merchant FMCW peers are pre-revenue start-ups, and the two large FMCW programmes (Mobileye, Aurora) are gone or captive. Aeva's 2025 sales are about 4% of Hesai's and a third of Innoviz's.

## Addressable market under two anchors

**Anchor 1, published.** Yole Automotive LiDAR 2025: USD 861M (2024) to **USD 3.8B (2030)**, 28% CAGR (Yole report page; press release variant USD 859M to 3.56B, 24% CAGR). Sivers' own 20 Oct 2026 release quotes the same Yole figure. Industrial LiDAR: no 2025 to 2030 Yole dollar figure found; the 2023 Yole deck gave 27% shipment CAGR. We carry industrial at USD 1.0 to 1.5B in 2030 (**speculated**, from Ouster USD 169M + Hesai/RoboSense robotics ≈ USD 150M in 2025 growing 25 to 30%/yr). Combined 2030 TAM anchor 1: **≈ USD 5B** (confirmed automotive + speculated industrial). cap. 19:17.

**Anchor 2, derived.** 2024 automotive units 1.6M (Yole); Hesai alone guides 3 to 3.5M for 2026, so 2026 industry ≈ 5 to 6M units (est.). At 25%/yr unit growth to 2030 ≈ 12 to 15M units at a falling blended ASP of USD 200 to 250 ⇒ **USD 2.4 to 3.8B** automotive (est.), consistent with Yole. Western long-range FMCW units carry USD 500 to 1,000 (est., Aeva has never disclosed pricing; Luminar's Iris was ≈ USD 1,000 and Aeva's Atlas is priced to the same slot). Industrial sensors (Ouster, Eve-class) USD 1,000 to 6,000.

**Share needed.** For Aeva to reach the scenarios below: base USD 300M in 2030 ≈ 6% of anchor 1 ≈ 300 to 600k units at USD 500 to 1,000; boom USD 700M ≈ 14% of anchor 1 ≈ 0.7 to 1.4M units. Chinese suppliers held 93% of passenger-car LiDAR in 2024 (Yole), so Aeva's addressable slice is the ex-China Western OEM, truck, industrial and defence pool, which we put at **USD 1.2 to 1.8B in 2030** (speculated); base case is then 17 to 25% of that pool, boom 40 to 60%.

## Scenarios: 2030 revenue under bust, base and boom (23 October 2026)

Consensus (StockAnalysis / S&P Global, 5 analysts, 21 Oct 2026, cap. 19:19): 2025A USD 18.1M, **2026e 32.4M** (31.2 to 33.8), **2027e 72.7M**, 2028e not public (locked). Yahoo (4 analysts): 2026e 32.3M, 2027e 73.9M (57.7 to 92M). StocksGuide (7): 2026e 33.6M, 2027e 73.2M. Named houses in the public record: Oppenheimer Outperform, target raised to USD 42 from 33; Morgan Stanley Equal-weight, 27 from 18.50; Roth Buy 17 (older); consensus Buy (3 Strong Buy, 2 Hold), average target USD 29, median 27, high 42, low 15. Cantor, Canaccord, Craig-Hallum and Goldman notes were **not found** on the web (terminal/IBKR needed). MarketScreener's AEVA page resolved to the wrong instrument and gave nothing. Fintel not found.

| | Bust (≈ consensus path) | Base | Boom |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2030 revenue | **≈ USD 150M** | **≈ USD 300M** | **≈ USD 700M** |
| Arithmetic | 2027e 73M, then +30%/yr: 95 → 123 → 160; round to 150 | Daimler Truck 20 to 30k trucks/yr × USD 2,000 (2 sensors × 1,000) = USD 40 to 60M; European L3 passenger SOP 2028 ramps to 100k units × 600 = 60M; Bendix 50k × 500 = 25M; industrial/physical AI (SICK, Nikon, LG Innotek consumer/robotics) 80M; services/NRE 30M; defence and infra 30M | As base plus passenger programme at 300k units (180M), a second OEM (100M), optical connectivity near-packaged optics 2M units × USD 50 = 100M (management "multiple hundreds of millions" target), industrial 150M |
| CAGR 2025 to 2030 | 53% | 75% | 108% |
| vs consensus 2027e | on path | 4× 2027e by 2030 | 10× 2027e by 2030 |
| Named driver | growth from existing programmes only, passenger SOP slips | Daimler SOP 2027 + European OEM 2028 + industrial scale | plus a second passenger OEM and the hyperscaler optical programme |
| Capacity ceiling | fine | Partner network "up to 100k units/yr" (Zacks, est.) to "up to 200k/yr North America" (unverified third-party); Jabil automated line for Daimler Atlas running (Q2 2026); LG Innotek line for Atlas Ultra, capacity not disclosed; Fabrinet Thailand for Eve | 1M+ units/yr would need LG Innotek and Jabil expansions not yet announced; laser supply: Sivers' Glasgow phase 1 and partner foundry (see Sivers report) or Lumentum/Coherent allocation |
| EV/sales today on 2030 revenue (EV USD 611M) | 4.1× | 2.0× | 0.9× |

All three are **est.**; unit prices are our assumptions, not company data. The bust case alone already requires 50%/yr growth, which is why the stock trades at ≈ 19× 2026e sales (EV basis; corrected 2026-10-23 from ≈ 16×).

## Valuation: market data and scenario values as of 23 October 2026

Price USD 9.88 (close 22 Oct 2026, StockAnalysis, captured 23 Oct 08:52). IBKR shows 9.83 for the same close; the 0.5% vendor gap is unreconciled and does not change any conclusion.

| Item | Value | Tag |
| --- | ---: | --- |
| Basic shares | 69.71M | confirmed |
| Converts (100M ÷ 15.86) | 6.31M shares, out of the money at 9.88 | confirmed terms; est. count |
| Sylebra warrant (3M at USD 5) | 3.00M shares, in the money | confirmed |
| Fully diluted ex-RSU/options | ~79.0M | est. |
| Market cap, basic | USD 689M | confirmed (market data) |
| Market cap, fully diluted ex-RSU | USD 781M | est. |
| Cash and securities | USD 177.9M (30 Jun) | confirmed |
| Convertible debt | USD 100M | confirmed |
| Net cash | USD 77.9M | est. |
| Enterprise value (basic cap − net cash) | **USD 611M** | est. |
| EV/sales 2025A (18.1M) | 33.7× | est. |
| EV/sales 2026e (32.4M) | 18.9× | est. on consensus |
| EV/sales 2027e (72.7M) | 8.4× | est. on consensus |

Consensus: 5 analysts, 2026e USD 32.4M, 2027e 72.7M (S&P Global via StockAnalysis/Yahoo); 2028e not public. Targets: LSEG mean USD 29 (5 analysts, median 27, range 15 to 42). Latest per broker: Oppenheimer 42 (6 Aug), Craig-Hallum 35, Morgan Stanley 27 Equal-weight (raised from 18.50 of 2 Mar), Canaccord 26 (6 Aug), Goldman Neutral 15 (cut from 20 at the 24 Aug initiation, ~6 Oct per TipRanks). Morningstar quantitative: 3 stars, fair value USD 14.10 (19 Oct 2026), no moat, very high uncertainty (IBKR, captured 22 Oct). (corrected 2026-10-23: Goldman 20 → 15, Craig-Hallum added at 35; Morningstar added) (confirmed, 22 Oct 19:16)

H2 2026 cash burn at the H1 rate (~USD 57M) would leave about USD 120M at year end, roughly two years of runway before the standby facility. (est.)

### Dilution history

| Date | Event | Size | Price | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Mar 2021 | SPAC merger (InterPrivate) + PIPE | — | USD 10 pre-split (50 post-split) | confirmed |
| Dec 2023 | Sylebra standby preferred facility + warrant | USD 125M facility; 3M warrants at 5 | — | confirmed |
| Mar 2024 | 1-for-5 reverse split | — | — | confirmed |
| 2025 | LG Innotek equity investment | USD 32.5M | 9.26 | confirmed |
| 2025 | Apollo convertible notes | USD 100M | conversion 15.86 | confirmed |
| Jun 2026 | Follow-on offering (S-3ASR, 424B5) | USD 115M gross | 22.25 | confirmed |
| Ongoing | Evergreen equity plan | up to 4.9% of shares a year | — | confirmed (DEF 14A per leadership fork) |

Shares rose 10.7% from 31 Mar to 30 Jul 2026. There is no ATM program. (confirmed)

### Scenario values per share today

Revenue paths from the scenarios section: bust USD 150M, base 300M, boom 700M in 2030. Discount rate **15%** over four years (higher than the 12% used for Sivers and X-FAB, because Aeva is pre-production and loss-making). Net cash in 2030 and share counts reflect the funding each path needs. All est.

| Scenario | 2030 revenue | EV/sales 2030 | EV 2030 | Net cash 2030 | Shares 2030 | Value 2030 per share | **Value today** |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Bust (≈ consensus path) | 150M | 3× | 450M | −150M | 100M | 3.0 | **USD 1.7** |
| Base | 300M | 5× | 1.5B | −50M | 90M | 16.1 | **USD 9.2** |
| Boom | 700M | 6× | 4.2B | 0 | 85M | 49.4 | **USD 28.3** |

At USD 9.88 the market prices roughly the base case: Daimler in production from 2027, the European OEM from 2028, and industrial volumes. The analyst average of ~USD 29 sits at the boom value. (est.)

## Broker and ratings data, IBKR Mobile, captured 2026-10-22 and 2026-10-23

Two capture runs on emulator-5554, IBKR Mobile read-only: 22 Oct 2026 19:05 to 19:09 (stopped mid-run) and 23 Oct 2026 08:54 to 09:05 Europe/Luxembourg (resume). The Run column shows which. Screenshots are in this folder.

| Field | Value | IBKR as-of | Captured (Europe/Luxembourg) | Run | Screenshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Listing | AEVA TECHNOLOGIES INC, AEVA, NASDAQ.NMS, USD (also 4ZM on FWB) | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:05:58+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190558+0200_search.png |
| Last price (22 Oct, intraday) | 9.83 USD, -0.77 (-7.26%), market open, 2h54m to close; bid 9.80 / ask 9.84 | 2026-10-22 intraday | 2026-10-22T19:05:59+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190559+0200_quote.png |
| Day stats (22 Oct) | Open 10.03; prior close 10.60; range 9.79 to 10.35; VWAP 10.02; volume 588K; market cap 684.51M USD | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:05:59+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190559+0200_quote.png |
| 52-week range | 8.83 to 31.30 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:05:59+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190559+0200_quote.png |
| Valuation / risk | Forward P/E -5.47; EPS -0.45 (last quarter); beta 3.209; historical vol 74.28%; IV 124.4%, IV percentile 82% | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:05:59+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190559+0200_quote.png |
| Last price (23 Oct, overnight) | 9.91 USD, +0.03 (+0.30%) vs 22 Oct close 9.88 (implied); overnight session | 2026-10-23 overnight | 2026-10-23T08:55:19+02:00 | 2026-10-23 | 20261023T085519+0200_quote_overnight.png |
| Events | Q3 2026 earnings 4 Nov 2026 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:06:00+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190600+0200_company_top.png |
| Financials (TTM, USD) | Total revenue 21.6M; cost of revenue 15.72M; net income before tax -32.15M (latest quarter view); net profit margin -150.12%; cash from operations -111.48M | latest filings (Q2 2026) | 2026-10-22T19:06:24+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190624+0200_company_2.png |
| Key ratios vs industry | P/E excl. ex. items -23.64 (ind. 10.94); cash flow per share -0.44 (0.03); current ratio 7.85 (1.8); return on investment -34.63% (1.25%) | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:06:27+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190627+0200_company_3.png |
| Ownership split | Institutions 67.51%; strategic entities 17.47%; others 15.02% (holder-level table not captured) | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:06:30+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190630+0200_company_4.png |
| Morningstar quantitative rating | 3 stars | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:06:58+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190658+0200_morningstar_1.png |
| Morningstar fair value estimate | 14.10 USD (stock ~25-30% below) | 2026-10-19 | 2026-10-22T19:06:58+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190658+0200_morningstar_1.png |
| Morningstar moat / uncertainty / health | Moat None; uncertainty Very High; financial health Moderate | 2026-10-21 | 2026-10-22T19:07:01+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190701+0200_morningstar_2.png |
| Morningstar valuation note | 'Balanced choice, but prudent investors should consider looking elsewhere'; 25% discount to FVE; EV/market value 0.9 (bottom 30%); sales yield 3.5% (bottom 10% globally); outperformed over past year | 2026-10-21 | 2026-10-22T19:07:20+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190720+0200_morningstar_valuation_2.png |
| Morningstar moat note | Quantitative moat none: not expected to outearn cost of capital; moderate financial health | 2026-10-21 | 2026-10-22T19:07:36+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190736+0200_morningstar_moat.png |
| ESG (Refinitiv) | Environmental n/a, Social n/a, Governance 2; overall 1; controversies Low (score 10) | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:06:32+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190632+0200_company_5.png |
| Social sentiment (Context Analytics) | S-score 0.102 (22 Oct), 0.125 (23 Oct); industry 0.057 / -0.450 | 2026-10-22/23 | 2026-10-22T19:06:35+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190635+0200_company_6.png |
| LSEG consensus | Buy, 5 analysts: 3 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:07:49+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190749+0200_lseg_1.png |
| LSEG price target | Mean 29.00 (+173.58% at 10.60); high 42.00, median 27.00, low 15.00 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:07:49+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190749+0200_lseg_1.png |
| Analyst action log | 24 Aug 2026 Goldman Sachs initiated Neutral 20; 6 Aug 2026 Canaccord Buy 26; 6 Aug 2026 Oppenheimer Outperform 42; 11 May 2026 AmerX initiated Hold; 2 Mar 2026 Morgan Stanley Equalweight 18.50; 6 Nov 2025 Craig-Hallum Buy 25; earlier 2025 targets 11 to 33 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:07:55+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190755+0200_lseg_3.png |
| TipRanks consensus | Moderate Buy, 5 ratings in 3 months (3 Buy, 2 Hold); avg target 29.00 (+195.92%), high 42, low 15 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:08:10+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190810+0200_tipranks_1.png |
| TipRanks analysts | Goldman (Delaney) Hold 15, 17 days ago; Morgan Stanley (Moore) Hold 27; Craig-Hallum (Shannon) Buy 35; Oppenheimer (Rusch) Buy 42; Canaccord (Gianarikas) Buy 26, all ~2 months ago; Roth MKM (Desilva) Buy 20, 5 months ago | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:08:16+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190816+0200_tipranks_3.png |
| LSEG quarterly forecast | EPS next quarter (Q3 2026) -0.41; net income bf tax -26.4M | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-22T19:08:51+02:00 | 2026-10-22 | 20261022T190851+0200_forecasts_1.png |
| LSEG annual forecast (chart reads, approx.) | EPS 2025A -1.75; 2026e ~-1.1; 2027e ~-1.6; 2028e ~-0.8; 2029e ~-0.1; 2030e ~+0.5. Gross margin 2025A -3.65%; 2026e to 2030e ~+15% rising to ~25%. BVPS 0.21. Capex 2025A 4.61M. No annual revenue chart offered for AEVA | 2026-10-23 | 2026-10-23T09:04:16+02:00 | 2026-10-23 | 20261023T090416+0200_forecast_annual_1.png |
| Short selling | Shortable shares at IBKR 2,869,247; borrow rate 0.4039%; securities-lending utilisation 51.10%; average loan duration 22.88 days (as of 21 Oct); short interest % of float not shown | 2026-10-21 | 2026-10-23T09:00:31+02:00 | 2026-10-23 | 20261023T090031+0200_quote_scroll_2.png |
| News 1 Sep to 23 Oct 2026 | Company news: 20 Oct Atlas 4D LiDAR certified as Sensys Gatso secondary speed-verification solution for Australian public roads (press release, Benzinga, The Fly, Dow Jones). Otherwise IB price-spike alerts, Trading Central signals, Zacks/ValuEngine reports (3, 9 Oct, 22 Oct sector), Reflexivity AI items incl. 'price fell 57.17%' (21 Oct). No headline on Sivers, LG Innotek, Daimler, offerings or the Fugazi short report in the IBKR feed for this window. Price path from alerts: 15.58 (3 Sep), 15.44 (21 Sep), 14.34 (29 Sep), 13.47 (9 Oct), 9.83 (22 Oct) | 2026-10-23 | 2026-10-23T08:55:33+02:00 | 2026-10-23 | 20261023T085533+0200_news_1.png |

### Gaps

- Holder-level ownership table and insider trade log not captured
- Annual revenue forecast not offered by LSEG for AEVA (use StockAnalysis/S&P consensus)
- Short interest as % of float not shown
- News between 10 and 16 Oct partly skipped by scrolling; no material company item spotted at either edge
- Morningstar full PDF not downloaded

## Leadership and governance: founders, insiders and the letters (23 October 2026)

### Who runs it and who owns it

| Item | Finding | Tag, source, date |
| --- | --- | --- |
| CEO | **Soroush Salehian Dardashti**, 37, co-founder, director since Dec 2016 (Class III, up 2027). Ex-Apple Special Projects (hardware). Not listed as independent. | confirmed, DEF 14A 18 Jun 2026 (captured 19:08) |
| Chairman, President and CTO | **Mina Rezk**, 41, co-founder, director since Dec 2016, Chairman under the 2021 Stockholders Agreement. Ex-Apple, ex-Nikon Research. Founders may nominate themselves while each holds ≥5%. | confirmed, DEF 14A 2026 |
| CFO | **Saurabh Sinha** left 5 Sep 2026 after the June raise and Q2 results; **Rupesh Maheshwari** (VP Corporate Controller) interim CFO, search under way. | confirmed, Q2 2026 release 5 Aug 2026 (captured 19:20) |
| Board | 7 seats, staggered three classes: Daniel Gibson (Sylebra founder, since May 2025, independent, Sylebra nominee), Hrach Simonian (Canaan, 2021), Stephen Zadesky (ex-Apple, 2022), Stefan Sommer (ex-ZF CEO, 2023), Katherine Motlagh (2025). Five of seven independent. | confirmed, DEF 14A 2026 |
| Auditor | Deloitte & Touche since 2020; audit fees USD 2.18M (2025) vs 1.37M (2024), +59%. | confirmed, DEF 14A 2026 |
| Voting | Single class of common stock, no dual class. Control comes from concentration, not super-voting. | confirmed, DEF 14A 2026 |
| Shares | 62,979,598 at 31 Mar 2026; **69,705,758 at 30 Jul 2026** after the June offering (+10.7%). 1-for-5 reverse split March 2024. | confirmed, DEF 14A; 10-Q Q2 2026 cover (captured 19:22) |

**Beneficial ownership at 31 March 2026** (before the June offering; confirmed, DEF 14A):

| Holder | Shares | % |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sylebra Capital (Daniel Gibson) | 16,228,553 | 25.8% |
| Mina Rezk | 4,047,042 | 6.3% |
| Canaan Partners XI | 3,597,039 | 5.7% |
| LG Innotek | 3,509,719 | 5.6% |
| Lux Ventures IV | 3,330,337 | 5.3% |
| Soroush Salehian Dardashti | 3,321,585 | 5.2% |
| Directors and officers as a group (8) | 23,999,912 | 36.7% |

Sylebra also holds a Series A warrant for 3.0M shares at USD 5.00 (capped at 19.9% ownership) and the USD 125M standby preferred facility to 8 Nov 2026 (fees USD 3.8M paid). Sylebra filed 13D Amendment 4 referencing a Contribution Agreement and a Termination Agreement dated 30 Jun 2026 (terminating a 5 Nov 2025 forward purchase agreement); post-amendment share count not captured (secondary, EDGAR index, captured 19:30). Free float est. ~55% of 69.7M after the offering, excluding the 25.8% Sylebra block, the two founders and LG Innotek; the Canaan and Lux stakes are venture holders that can sell at any time (est.).

**Prior outcomes and controversies.** The founders have one prior outcome: Aeva itself, taken public via the InterPrivate SPAC in March 2021 at about USD 2B, which fell to about USD 0.80 split-adjusted by March 2024 (secondary, Fugazi 21 Aug 2026). A USD 14.0M settlement of the Delaware Chancery SPAC class action (Smith and Katz, 2024-0221) received final approval 12 Sep 2025; Aeva paid under indemnification to the former InterPrivate directors with USD 2.5M insurance recovery expected (confirmed, FY2024 10-K; KTMC case page). Neither founder was a named defendant.

**Pay 2025** (confirmed, DEF 14A): Salehian USD 8.79M (salary 0.60M, bonus 1.0M, stock 7.18M); Rezk USD 8.90M (includes USD 360k relocation stipend); Sinha USD 2.66M. CEO pay up from about USD 1.5M in 2024 (secondary). Compensation actually paid to the CEO in 2025 was USD 31.7M on a net loss of USD 145M (secondary, gloom.sh proxy summary; verify in the pay-versus-performance table).

### Promises versus delivery, last four letters

| Date, letter | Promise or guidance | What the next report showed | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 29 Jan 2024 (Daimler award) | Aeva start of production **by 2026**, Daimler ramp **by 2027**. | Nov 2025: "first vehicle builds completed", C-samples **in 2026**. Feb 2026: B-sample validation done, C-samples 2026. May 2026: "production-intent Atlas delivered". Aug 2026: "scaling shipments... for AV stack validation ahead of series production", no series date. Secondary (Yahoo) still says Daimler SOP 2027. | slipped from "SOP 2026" to undated |
| 5 Nov 2025 (Q3 2025) | Top-10 passenger OEM: JDP complete, "late-stage negotiations" for large series award. | 26 Feb 2026: awarded, exclusive Tier-1 LiDAR for a European OEM L3 programme outside China, **SOP 2028**. | delivered |
| 5 Nov 2025 | Apollo USD 100M convertible, closing subject to conditions. | Closed 6 Nov 2025: 4.375% notes due 15 Nov 2032, conversion USD 15.86. | delivered |
| 5 Nov 2025 | Eve 1D line up, first units shipped; Eve 1V orders from multiple customers. | No Eve volume figure in any later release. | gone quiet |
| 26 Feb 2026 (Q4 2025) | **2026 revenue USD 30 to 36M (+70 to 100%)**; "four or more new commercial wins"; opex flat to +10% vs 2025. | H1 2026 revenue USD 12.4M, i.e. 34 to 41% of the range in half the year; H2 needs USD 17.6 to 23.6M. Q2 release did not restate the range (Fugazi reads it as maintained; we could not find a reaffirmation sentence). Opex H1 USD 73.8M vs 62.9M, +17%, above the +10% ceiling on a GAAP basis (non-GAAP opex not broken out). | at risk; opex promise missed on GAAP |
| 26 Feb 2026 | "Top 5 passenger OEM" JDP with "opportunity for large scale production award". | No award by 5 Aug 2026. | pending |
| 26 Feb 2026 | NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion reference sensor. | Repeated in May and Aug as "milestones", no revenue attached. | pending |
| 29 Jul 2025 (LG Innotek) | Up to USD 50M: USD 32.5M equity at USD 9.26 (closed 20 Aug 2025), USD 7.5M NRE JDA, capex for capacity. | Sep 2026 Korean press: robot LiDAR mass production "next year" (2027), Atlas Ultra 2028. No LG manufacturing milestone in Aeva's own releases. | pending, secondary only |
| 5 Aug 2026 (Q2 2026) | Optical connectivity for AI data centres: JDA with an optical-engine provider for a hyperscaler module, **initial deployment H2 2027, ramp 2028**; manufacturing started on the automated Jabil line. | Next test 4 Nov 2026. | new, untested |

Pattern: product-revenue promises slip and go undated, financing promises close on time.

### Revenue quality, adapted for a pre-production sensor maker

| Test | Evidence | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Product vs service | Q2 2026 product USD 2.5M (−39% YoY; corrected 2026-10-23 from −40%), professional services USD 3.6M (+175%). H1 2026 product 5.0M vs 6.7M, services 7.4M vs 2.2M. **60% of H1 revenue is NRE**; product revenue is shrinking. | confirmed, Q2 release and 10-Q |
| Gross margin | Q1 USD 1.9M, Q2 USD 2.2M gross profit (36%) after a FY2025 gross loss; the swing comes from NRE, not unit economics. | confirmed |
| Concentration | 2025: three customers 64% of revenue; 2024: two customers 72%; H1 2026: two customers 59% (secondary, Fugazi citing 10-Q). Receivables: three customers 72% at 31 Dec 2025. | secondary / confirmed (10-K AR note) |
| Backlog | No contractual backlog disclosed. The "order book" is a forward billing estimate; risk factors say broad commercial deliveries may not occur in 2026 or ever. | secondary, Fugazi quoting 10-K |
| Working capital | Inventory USD 5.7M flat; receivables USD 3.7M vs 3.4M; no deferred revenue line. Nothing suggests a volume ramp in the balance sheet. | confirmed, 10-Q Q2 2026 |
| Cash burn | Operating cash outflow USD 57.0M in H1 2026; GAAP net loss H1 USD 114.6M (includes warrant fair-value charges); non-GAAP operating loss USD 51.8M. Accumulated deficit USD 872M. | confirmed, 10-Q; secondary for deficit |
| Equity | Stockholders' equity USD −12.4M at 31 Mar 2026, USD 27.5M at 30 Jun 2026 only because of the USD 108.8M net raise. Warrant liabilities USD 74.0M. | confirmed |
| Geography | Not disclosed by region in the releases captured. | gap |

### Insider register (Form 4, EDGAR; captured 19:25 to 19:33)

| Date | Insider | Action | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Salehian, Rezk | Adopted 10b5-1 plans: Salehian up to 580,448 shares to 2 Jan 2027; Rezk up to 700,000 shares 16 Jun 2026 to 31 Mar 2027. | confirmed, 10-Q Q1 2026 |
| 16 Jun 2026 | Rezk | Sold 350,000 shares, ~USD 8.6M (plan), eleven days after the USD 22.25 offering. | secondary, Investing.com |
| 8 and 27 Jul 2026 | Salehian | 64,800 at ~21.16 and 10,304 at 15.40, tax-withholding on RSU vesting. | confirmed, Form 4 |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Rezk | Sold 100,000 at 23.81 to 25.55, USD 2.40M (plan), held ~1.53M direct + ~1.61M trust after. | confirmed, Form 4 12 Aug |
| 10 to 11 Aug 2026 | Salehian | Sold 305,099 at 23.86 to 25.69, **USD 7.34M** (plan); 2,750,541 held after. | secondary, Investing.com; Form 4 14 Aug |
| 12 Aug 2026 | Motlagh (director) | Sold 2,500 at 25.50, not under a plan. | confirmed, Form 4 |
| 18 Aug 2026 | Sinha (CFO, departing) | Sold 70,000 at 21.21, USD 1.48M. | secondary, Fugazi |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Sinha | 34,146 at 14.83, tax withholding; 547,226 held after. | confirmed, Form 4 4 Sep |
| 2025 to 2026 | Any insider | **No open-market purchases found.** | confirmed by absence in the 38 Form 4s since Nov 2025 |

Founders and CFO sold about **USD 20M** between 16 June and 2 September 2026 (est. from the rows above), all within four weeks of the June raise and the 5 August optical announcement. Sales were plan-based, but the plans were adopted in March 2026, three months before the offering. Equity grants: evergreen adds of 3,079,007 shares each to the 2021 plan and ESPP in January 2026 (about 4.9% of shares, no vote needed).

**Capital raised in 12 months** (confirmed): LG Innotek USD 32.5M at 9.26 (Aug 2025); Apollo USD 100M converts at 15.86 (Nov 2025); follow-on 5,168,539 shares at USD 22.25, gross USD 115M, net 108.8M (5 Jun 2026, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Oppenheimer); Sylebra USD 125M standby preferred, undrawn, expires 8 Nov 2026. No ATM programme found. Liquidity 30 Jun 2026: cash and securities USD 177.9M plus the undrawn 125M = USD 302.9M.

### Red flags

- **Going concern:** none in the Q2 10-Q or 10-K; the risk-factor language is the generic "may need additional financing". Burn of about USD 110M a year against USD 178M of cash gives roughly 18 months before the Sylebra facility (expiring November 2026) or another raise matters (est.).
- **Short report:** Fugazi Research, 21 Aug 2026, "Ridiculous valuation for a bleeding startup masquerading as AI": 72× trailing sales, USD 447M losses over three years, "valuation by adjacency" to NVIDIA and Daimler, USD 11.9M insider sales. Shares fell on the day; no company rebuttal found. The report itself has internal inconsistencies (USD 18.1M vs 21M revenue, 39× vs 47× guidance multiple, unsourced "internal control weakness" claim).
- **Restatements:** none found. Audit fees +59% in 2025 without explanation.
- **Delayed filings:** none.
- **CFO exit** one month after a USD 115M raise and the data-centre pivot.
- **Share-price path:** SPAC close March 2021 about USD 2B; USD 0.80 split-adjusted low March 2024; 1-for-5 reverse split March 2024; USD 2.50 Sep 2024 to USD 38.80 June 2025 (first retail run, +431% in a year, Oppenheimer target hikes, LG deal); USD 14.66 Sep 2025; offering at 22.25 Jun 2026; 52-week high USD 31.30 (date not captured) after the 5 Aug optical announcement (after-hours +17.8% to 23.10, 25.16 on 12 Aug); USD 15.63 on 28 Aug after Fugazi; **about USD 10.03 to 10.60 on 16 to 22 Oct 2026**, 52-week low 8.83, year-to-date about −20% (secondary: Morningstar 16 Oct, MarketScreener 22 Oct 09:37 EDT 10.26). Market cap est. USD 0.72B at 10.30 × 69.7M.
- **Meme and retail:** WallStreetBets and Stocktwits attention in the June 2025 run ("retail remains bullish", Stocktwits 26 Jun 2025); Serenity's mentions (22 since Feb 2026, latest 20 Oct 2026 per serenitystock.com) sit on the Sivers-to-Aeva laser inference, which **no Aeva document supports**: Aeva's 4D LiDAR integrates the laser on its own silicon-photonics chip module made by Fabrinet (Aeva 2021 release), and no Aeva filing names Sivers.
- **Analysts:** Goldman initiated Neutral, USD 20, on 24 Aug 2026 ("transportation revenue largely in the multiple") and later cut to 15 (~6 Oct, TipRanks via IBKR; corrected 2026-10-23); Morgan Stanley 27, Canaccord 26, Craig-Hallum 35; aggregator consensus USD 28.75 (range 20 to 42) on 5 analysts, i.e. targets set at two to three times the current price before the October slide (secondary).

### Next dated hard test

**Q3 2026 results, Wednesday 4 November 2026 after the close** (company release 14 Oct 2026). What settles the letters: Q3 revenue against the USD 17.6 to 23.6M the full-year range needs in H2; whether the USD 30 to 36M guidance is kept, cut or quietly dropped; product revenue versus NRE; a Daimler series-production date; any committed volume in the hyperscaler JDA; the permanent CFO; Sylebra facility renewal before 8 November.

## Serenity's claims versus the evidence

| Claim (Serenity, 2026 posts and trackers) | Verdict | Evidence (date, cap.) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Aeva is the "strategic LiDAR customer" behind Sivers' USD 53 to 138M production order | **unverifiable** | Sivers' 11 Mar and 20 Oct 2026 releases never name the customer; the customer quote says "our LiDAR platforms are increasingly being adopted by Tier 1 Automotive OEMs" and cites "brand name customers in Industrial markets", which fits Aeva (Daimler, Bendix, SICK, Nikon) but also fits others. No Aeva filing, 10-Q or release names Sivers; Aeva's 10-Q names no laser supplier. The only public chain is a Substack post (RevoAIution, 12 Aug 2026) that calls it a hypothesis. No 2021 to 2024 Sivers release mentions Aeva. (19:16, 19:23) |
| Sivers' lasers match Aeva's needs (CW DFB + optical amplifier, 1550 nm, narrow linewidth) | **reasonable** | Sivers markets high-power 1550 nm CW DFB for FMCW LiDAR; Aeva's FMCW uses 1550 nm and an integrated/proprietary laser on a silicon-photonics chip (Atlas Ultra page). Fit is plausible; exclusivity is not shown. (19:23) |
| FMCW is the winning architecture | **speculated** | Mobileye abandoned its 1320 nm FMCW (Forbes 5 Jan 2026); Aurora keeps FMCW captive; Scantinel and SiLC are pre-series. The volume market (Hesai, RoboSense, 2.5M+ units 2025) is ToF. FMCW has won Daimler Truck and one European L3 programme, not the market. (19:16, 19:23) |
| Daimler Truck volume | **reasonable, timing open** | Daimler Truck exclusive long-range LiDAR, C-samples 2026, production-intent Atlas shipping, Jabil automated line running (5 Aug 2026). No SOP date in the 2026 releases; third-party sources say market entry 2027, major SOP 2028. Volumes never disclosed by Aeva. (19:18, 19:22) |
| LG Innotek partnership and capacity | **confirmed, capacity unknown** | Up to USD 50M (USD 32M equity ≈ 6%, rest capacity and joint products), Jul 2025; Tier-2 manufacturing partner for the top-10 passenger OEM programme; joint FMCW development to end-2027. No units-per-year figure published. (19:22) |
| Physical AI / robotics demand | **reasonable, early** | SICK first Eve sensor launched, "volume to scale over 12 to 18 months"; Nikon metrology; LG Innotek consumer/robotics; Forterra defence. Product revenue fell to USD 2.5M in Q2 2026 on shipment timing, so none of this is in the numbers yet. (19:18) |
| Hyperscaler optical connectivity is a second Sivers-sized chokepoint | **speculated** | JDA signed with an optical-engine provider for a major hyperscaler, initial deployment H2 2027, ramp 2028, "multiple millions of units, multiple hundreds of millions of dollars" are management targets not guidance. (19:18) |
| Aeva's 2026 guidance USD 30 to 36M (+70 to 100%) | **confirmed** | 26 Feb 2026 release; H1 delivered USD 12.4M, so H2 must do 18 to 24M. (19:21) |

**Bottom line for the parent:** the Sivers-to-Aeva link is an inference from product fit and a customer quote, with no primary confirmation on either side. Aeva's own numbers are small (USD 18M 2025), 60% services in H1 2026, and the stock already prices the bust case at about 3× 2030 revenue. The first dated tests are Aeva's Q3 on 4 Nov 2026 (does product revenue recover, any supplier or Daimler SOP disclosure) and Sivers' Q3 on 26 Nov 2026 (first LiDAR shipments and whether the customer is described further).

## Fact audit: corrections made on 23 October 2026

Adversarial check of the three section files against the 10-K 2025, 10-Q Q1 and Q2 2026, 8-K exhibits, DEF 14A 2026, the June 2026 424B5, company releases and IBKR captures. Capture 23 Oct 2026, Europe/Luxembourg.

| Claim | Section | Verdict | Correct value | Source and date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise value USD 510M | competitors | wrong | USD 611M: cap 689M at 9.88 less net cash 77.9M (cash 177.9M − 100M converts) | 10-Q Q2 2026 balance sheet; Q2 release 5 Aug 2026 |
| Enterprise value USD 611M | business | confirmed | as stated | same |
| EV/sales today on 2030 revenue 3.4 / 1.7 / 0.7× | competitors | wrong (used EV 510M) | 4.1 / 2.0 / 0.9× | arithmetic |
| "≈ 16× 2026e sales" | competitors | wrong | ≈ 19× (611 ÷ 32.4) | arithmetic |
| Price 22 Oct close | business | confirmed, vendor gap | 9.88 StockAnalysis/Yahoo, 9.83 IBKR; 9.85 in competitors is the 21 Oct close | StockAnalysis 23 Oct 08:52; IBKR 22 Oct |
| ISIN US00835Q1031 | metadata | wrong | US00835Q2021 (CUSIP 00835Q202 since the reverse split) | Aeva release 18 Mar 2024; check digit computed |
| Exchange Nasdaq | all | confirmed | The Nasdaq Stock Market | 10-Q Q2 2026 cover |
| Goldman Neutral 20 | business, leadership | outdated | Hold 15 (~6 Oct 2026); initiated at 20 on 24 Aug | TipRanks via IBKR 23 Oct; LSEG log |
| Morgan Stanley 27 vs 18.50 | business | confirmed latest | 27 Equal-weight; 18.50 was 2 Mar 2026 | TipRanks via IBKR 23 Oct; LSEG log |
| Craig-Hallum 25 vs 35 | business | 25 outdated | 35 Buy current; 25 dated Nov 2025 | TipRanks via IBKR 23 Oct; Investing.com |
| Consensus mean target ~29 | business | confirmed | LSEG mean 29, median 27, range 15 to 42, 5 analysts | IBKR 22 Oct |
| Morningstar quant 3 stars, FV 14.10 | business | added | 3 stars, FV 14.10 (19 Oct), no moat, very high uncertainty | IBKR 22 Oct |
| Shares 69.7M | all | confirmed | 69,705,758 at 30 Jul 2026 | 10-Q Q2 2026 cover |
| H1 2026 revenue 12.4M, 60% NRE | all | confirmed | product 5.0M + professional services 7.4M = 12.4M; services 60% | 10-Q Q2 2026 MD&A |
| Q2 product 2.55M vs 4.20M | business | confirmed (rounding) | 10-Q states 2.5M vs 4.2M, −39% (not −40%) | 10-Q Q2 2026 MD&A |
| 2026 guidance 30 to 36M in force | competitors, leadership | partly | given 26 Feb 2026; not repeated in the 5 Aug 2026 Q2 release | Q4 and Q2 releases |
| Converts USD 100M 4.375% due 2032 | business | confirmed | as stated | 10-Q Q2 2026 |
| Insider sales ~USD 20M Jun to Sep 2026, 10b5-1 | leadership | reasonable, partly secondary | rows sourced to Form 4s and to the Fugazi report; total is our sum | Form 4s; Fugazi 21 Aug 2026 |
| Fugazi Research short report 21 Aug 2026 | leadership | unverifiable here | no copy or link found in web search on 23 Oct; kept as secondary with this flag | web search 23 Oct |
| Sivers is the supplier to Aeva | competitors, business | speculated (stays) | "Sivers" appears in none of Aeva's 10-K, 10-Qs, 8-Ks, proxy or 424B5; Sivers' releases name no customer | full-text search of raw/ filings 23 Oct |
| Scenario values 1.7 / 9.2 / 28.3 | business | confirmed consistent | (EV − net debt) ÷ shares ÷ 1.15^4: 3.0/1.749, 16.1/1.749, 49.4/1.749 | arithmetic |

### Corrections applied 2026-10-23

- METADATA.json: ISIN corrected from US00835Q1031 to US00835Q2021.
- SECTION_business_valuation.md: listing row now carries CUSIP and ISIN; price note adds IBKR 9.83; analyst line corrected (Goldman 20 → 15, Craig-Hallum 35 added, Morgan Stanley history noted) and Morningstar 3 stars, FV 14.10 added.
- SECTION_competitors_scenarios.md: EV corrected from USD 510M to 611M; EV/sales on 2030 revenue from 3.4/1.7/0.7× to 4.1/2.0/0.9×; "≈ 16× 2026e sales" to ≈ 19×; guidance row notes it was not repeated on 5 Aug.
- SECTION_leadership.md: Goldman cut to 15 and Craig-Hallum 35 added.

## What is still open

- Aeva is the Sivers LiDAR customer (speculated; no primary source on either side).
- Sensor ASP and per-sensor laser content (est.; never disclosed).
- Daimler Truck SOP date and volume (undisclosed; slipped from "by 2026").
- RSU and option overhang not added to the fully diluted count.
- Capacity of the LG Innotek and Jabil lines (undisclosed).

- Fugazi report primary copy. Form 4 by Form 4 reconciliation of the ~USD 20M insider total. Sensor ASP and laser content per sensor. Daimler SOP date. 2028 consensus.

Sylebra 13D/A No. 4 post-30 June holdings; the 10-Q Items 1 and 5 (legal, 10b5-1 changes) not captured; FY2025 revenue by customer and geography from the 10-K; pay-versus-performance table; exact date and level of the USD 31.30 high; whether the Q2 call reaffirmed the 2026 range verbatim (transcript paywalled); Rezk's late-2025 and early-2026 sales that Investing.com references (not itemised here).

## Checkpoints that can change the view

- **4 November 2026, Q3 2026 results**: revenue against the USD 17.6 to 23.6M the second half needs for the USD 30 to 36M range; whether the range is kept; product revenue versus engineering services; operating cash burn.
- **8 November 2026, Sylebra standby facility expiry**: renewal, draw or lapse of the USD 125M preferred facility.
- **Daimler Truck series production**: a dated SOP and committed volumes would move the base case from assumption to schedule.
- **CFO**: a permanent appointment after the 5 September departure.
- **Sivers**: any named customer in Sivers' Q3 report on 26 November 2026, or a supplier named in Aeva's 10-K.
- **Insiders**: further 10b5-1 sales or a first open-market buy.

## Information dates and future updates

Price and broker data are stamped 22 and 23 October 2026 (Europe/Luxembourg). Filings: 10-K 2025, DEF 14A 2026, 10-Q Q1 and Q2 2026, Q2 2026 release (5 August 2026), June 2026 424B5, Form 4 filings through September 2026, Q3 results notice (14 October 2026). The review date for every record is 4 November 2026. Sources and retrieval hashes are listed in the published source manifest.

## Sources read for the competitor and scenario sections

Sivers release 11 Mar 2026 (sivers-semiconductors.com/press/strategic-lidar-customer-ramps-...); Sivers release 20 Oct 2026 (prnewswire 302913506; inelectronics.co.uk caveat); Aeva 8-K ex-99.1 26 Feb 2026 and 5 Aug 2026 (sec.gov 0001193125-26-076620, -335102); Aeva 10-Q 30 Jun 2026 (sec.gov 0001193125-26-338179); Fool transcript Q2 2026; Aeva Business Wire 14 Oct 2026 (finviz 402257); StockAnalysis AEVA forecast; Yahoo AEVA analysis; StocksGuide; Hesai 6-K FY2025 (sec.gov 1861737); CnEVPost 25 Mar 2026; Innoviz FY2025 release; Ouster FY2025 release 2 Mar 2026; Luminar 8-K and chapter11cases.com; LidarNews 13 Oct 2026; Yole Automotive LiDAR 2025 page and press release; optics.org Yole items; Forbes 5 Jan 2026 (Mobileye FMCW abandoned); RevoAIution Substack 12 Aug 2026; siliconmatter Substack; LG Innotek Reuters 29 Jul 2025; Zacks (100k units/yr); dcf-analysis.com (200k/yr, unverified).