Nasdaq · AEVA · USD · 2026-10-23
Idea source: Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)
Below fair value · +76% to USD 17.43 · 2026-10-22
Real FMCW programs, engineering-heavy revenue, and a Sivers link nobody has confirmed
An investment memo on Serenity's AEVA thesis: what Aeva sells and where its sensor and laser sit in an autonomous truck, a one-program money ladder, competitors and TAM, 2030 scenarios against consensus, a 23 Oct 2026 valuation with per-share scenario values, IBKR broker data, and a leadership, insider and revenue-quality review.
Reviewed 23 Oct 2026 · broker data and fact audit recorded
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Euronext Paris · XFAB · USD (reporting); EUR (share price) · 2026-10-22
Idea source: Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)
Below fair value · +67% to EUR 8.56 · 2026-10-22
Cheap assets, empty fabs: the photonics option costs little but pays late
An investment memo on Serenity's XFAB thesis: what X-FAB sells and where its wafer sits in the AI optics and SiC chains, a one-campus money ladder, competitors and a ~0% silicon photonics share, 2030 scenarios against consensus, a 22 Oct 2026 valuation with per-share scenario values, IBKR broker and ratings data, and a leadership, letters and order-book review.
Reviewed 22 Oct 2026 · broker data and fact audit recorded
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Nasdaq Stockholm · SIVE · SEK · 2026-10-22
Idea source: Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)
Above fair value · -36% to SEK 15.31 · 2026-10-21
The opportunity is real; the revenue ramp still has to arrive
An investment memo on the SIVE thesis: where the Sivers laser sits in an AI data center and what reaches it from a $40B campus, competitors and a ~0.3% share, 2030 scenarios against consensus, a dated valuation with per-share scenario values, and a leadership, letters and NRE review.
Reviewed 22 Oct 2026 · broker data and LiDAR orders recorded
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Nasdaq · NBIS · USD · 2026-10-21
Below fair value · +11% to USD 177 · 2026-10-22
Demand is arriving. The buildout must earn its return.
An investigation of AI cloud economics, Microsoft and Meta commitments, GPU investment, customer prepayments and dilution.
Initial review · fair value 23 Oct 2026
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